We're thinking of getting a vacation rental, but wondering about the market. Are there too many vacation rentals in the market? Are prices for Air Bnb rentals going down?
Asked by Celine | Nashville, TN| 04-27-2023| 877 views|Market News & Trends|Updated 3 years ago
That's a smart question, Celine. In a lot of markets, yes, the vacation rental space is more crowded than it was a few years ago. After the pandemic boom a wave of new hosts jumped in thinking it was easy money, and that extra supply has pushed nightly rates and occupancy down across many areas. It's not a bad investment, but you have to be a lot sharper about it now than you did in 2021.
Before you buy anything, research the local short-term rental regulations in the specific area you're targeting. Some cities and counties have capped permits, added licensing requirements, or banned them entirely in certain zones. Finding that out after you've already closed is an expensive problem to have.
Then run your numbers conservatively. Factor in realistic vacancy, cleaning costs, property management fees, maintenance, insurance, and the fact that you're competing with significantly more listings than you would have a few years ago. If it only works when everything goes perfectly, that's a red flag. If it still cash flows with conservative assumptions, you might have something worth pursuing.
Get with a local agent who understands the investment side and knows the short-term rental landscape in your target market. The right guidance before you buy is what keeps a vacation rental from becoming a money pit.
Barrett Henry
Broker Associate | REALTOR®
RE/MAX Collective · The NOW Team
Tampa Bay, Florida
nowtb.com
Vacation rental saturation is a real issue in some Florida markets, but whether there are too many depends entirely on the specific market you are looking at and the demand side of the equation.
In Citrus County and along the Nature Coast, the vacation rental market is meaningfully different from oversaturated markets like the Panhandle, Orlando, or Kissimmee. Crystal River and Homosassa attract a specific niche of eco-tourism, diving, and manatee watching visitors, which creates relatively stable seasonal demand from a motivated buyer pool that cannot easily substitute another destination. That niche demand provides some insulation from the race-to-the-bottom pricing dynamics that affect generic beach markets.
The key analysis for any vacation rental investment is occupancy rate and average daily rate trends over the past two years, not current revenue projections from a seller or management company. Platforms like AirDNA, Key Data, and Mashvisor publish this data by zip code and it tells you what the market is actually producing, not what it could produce in a perfect scenario. In a market with genuine saturation, occupancy rates fall and daily rates compress. In a market with stable demand and limited supply, those numbers hold. Run that analysis before you commit to any vacation rental purchase.
Kevin Neely & Kaitlynd Robbins | K2 Sells
The honest answer is it depends entirely on where you buy. Some markets are genuinely oversaturated. Nashville, Austin, Panama City Beach, and parts of Phoenix have seen listings grow faster than demand, and occupancy rates have dropped as a result. In those markets nightly rates have softened and hosts are competing harder for the same pool of guests.
But other markets are still performing well. Coastal areas, mountain destinations, and mid-sized cities with consistent tourism and limited supply are holding up fine. Supply growth across the country has actually slowed significantly in 2026 compared to the 2021-2022 explosion, which is helping stabilize rates in stronger markets.
Before you buy, look up the specific market on AirDNA or a similar short term rental analytics tool. Check the occupancy rate, average daily rate, and how many active listings are already in the area. A market with 50 percent or higher occupancy and stable or rising rates is a very different investment than one where hosts are discounting to fill calendars. The location decision matters far more right now than it did a few years ago.
There are becoming more and more vacation rentals, though the demand for vacation rentals seems to continue to be high. The rent does fluctuate with the market and seasonal attraction to the area.
Hi Celine - I agree with Chris Yochum; there are more and more vacation rentals. It also depends on where you are looking. In Amelia Island, Florida, many properties are zoned for short-term / vacation rentals. Depending on the time of year, holiday or special events depicts the rental rate. I have recently noticed that many rentals here are booked almost a year out.